Pseudonymous quantitative analyst PlanB, renowned for the stock-to-flow (S2F) model, declared the official start of the Bitcoin bull market on March 1, marking the end of the accumulation phase and easy buying opportunities.
Referencing the S2F chart, PlanB’s announcement coincided with Bitcoin’s breach of $60,000 for the first time in over two years. Despite a slight 0.75% decline in the 24-hour period, Bitcoin traded at $62,472, aligning with PlanB’s predictions.
While the S2F model gained traction during the 2021 bull run, it has faced criticism, notably from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who questioned its reliability and warned against instilling investors with a false sense of certainty.
Senior analyst Vetle Lunde from K33 Research suggests that post-halving periods often witness consolidation, followed by rallies. Lunde highlights a sweet spot occurring 150-400 days after the halving, characterized by reduced miner selling pressure, which historically drives positive BTC price movements.
The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has heightened investor interest in Bitcoin and contributed to its recent price surge.
Grayscale’s conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF resulted in a $598.9 million BTC sell-off on Feb. 29, leading to a 3% correction in Bitcoin’s price. However, despite the outflows, Bitcoin recorded a notable 22% increase in the past week.
Nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed over $2 billion in combined daily volume for the second consecutive day on Feb. 28. These ETFs accounted for 75% of new Bitcoin investments since their launch on Jan. 11, introducing passive, price-agnostic demand into the market.
Bitfinex Analysts anticipate new all-time highs for Bitcoin by the end of 2024, propelled by the introduction of ETFs and the sustained investor interest they generate.
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