Bitcoin’s Price Trends Reflect Historical Election Patterns: What to Expect

Bitcoin’s recent price movements are echoing patterns observed during previous U.S. presidential election years, suggesting a potential reversal in its current lack of momentum. According to crypto analyst Matthew Hyland, the cryptocurrency’s recent extended consolidation and subsequent downturn—bringing Bitcoin below $50,000 in early August—mirror trends seen in 2012, 2016, and 2020 ahead of U.S. elections.

In an August 16 analysis video, Hyland noted, “Bitcoin has seen the same sort of structure.” He pointed out that similar patterns in past election years involved significant price drops followed by a gradual increase as the election approached. “I’ll go back to August 2012, a massive crash right here. Then we slowly moved into the election before moving up drastically after the election,” he explained.

What to Expect in the Coming Months

Hyland predicts that Bitcoin’s price might experience some choppy movement but is likely to break out of its current range by October or November. He expects the price to remain within its current range for “a little bit longer” before showing substantial movement as the election approaches. The 2024 U.S. presidential election is scheduled for November 5.

As of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $59,089, down 9.78% since July 18, according to CoinMarketCap data.

While some traders, like Rager, anticipate further downside for Bitcoin before the end of September, others are predicting a short-term recovery. Rager, in an August 16 X post, suggested that Bitcoin might dip below its current range but could experience a brief rebound in late August before heading into September.

Speculations on Bitcoin’s Price Range

Several traders are eyeing Bitcoin’s potential to revisit the $40,000 range. On August 5, Bitcoin briefly touched $49,842, an event dubbed “Black Crypto Monday.” MN founder Michael van de Poppe highlighted that losing the $56,000 support level could lead to new lows or a retest at $48,000.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, recommended waiting for Bitcoin’s price to fall into the low $40,000 range to secure the best entry point ahead of the next bull run. Thielen wrote in an August 7 report, “To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s.”

Bitcoin’s price action in 2024 is closely mirroring historical patterns seen during U.S. election years, suggesting that a significant shift could be on the horizon. While some traders are preparing for further declines, others see potential opportunities in waiting for lower price points before making their next move. As the election approaches, all eyes will be on how these trends unfold.