Bitwise Sticks to $200,000 Bitcoin Price Prediction Amid Global Trade Tensions

Despite rising global trade tensions and uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, institutional crypto investment firm Bitwise has reaffirmed its bold prediction for Bitcoin’s price. In a recent blog post on April 9, Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, doubled down on the firm’s $200,000 Bitcoin price target for 2025. This comes after Bitwise originally made the prediction in December 2023, and Hougan remains confident that the scenario is still very much “in play.”

Trump’s Tariff Push: A Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Strength

One of the key reasons Hougan remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future price is the fallout from Trump’s global tariff push, particularly the weakening of the US dollar. According to Hougan, the Trump administration’s policies aim to create a weaker dollar, even if it means diminishing the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. Hougan cites a speech by Steve Miran, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which highlighted how the dollar’s reserve status has led to “currency distortions” and unsustainable trade deficits that have harmed US manufacturing.

Hougan argues that the weakening of the US dollar could have both short-term and long-term benefits for Bitcoin. Historically, there has been a clear correlation between a weaker dollar and a stronger Bitcoin, he says. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen more than 7% since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin’s price has gained momentum, and Hougan expects this trend to continue. He summed it up simply: “Dollar down equals Bitcoin up.”

The DXY, which measures the value of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has been on a downward trajectory, and Hougan believes this creates an ideal environment for Bitcoin to gain strength. Given Bitcoin’s decentralized nature, it offers an alternative to traditional fiat currencies, particularly in times of monetary instability.

Long-Term Implications: Bitcoin as an Alternative Reserve Asset

Looking ahead, Hougan also sees long-term opportunities for Bitcoin to emerge as a more prominent alternative to traditional reserve assets. As the global reserve currency system faces increasing disruption, Bitcoin and other hard assets like gold could play a larger role. The weakness of the dollar challenges its role in international trade, prompting governments and companies to consider alternative stores of value for cross-border transactions.

“Governments and companies turn to the dollar for international trade precisely because of its stability. When that stability comes into question, they have to look elsewhere,” Hougan explained. This could open the door for Bitcoin to become a key player in the evolving global financial landscape. The Bitwise executive predicts a shift from a single reserve currency system to a “more fractured reserve system,” with Bitcoin and gold seeing greater demand as reliable, stable assets.

The growing role of Bitcoin in international trade was underscored earlier this week when VanEck reported that countries like China and Russia are reportedly settling some energy trades in Bitcoin. As global trade tensions escalate, particularly with Trump’s trade war policies, Bitcoin’s potential as a global settlement currency is becoming more evident. This move could be a significant step toward solidifying Bitcoin’s place in international markets as a digital alternative to the US dollar.

On April 9, Trump issued a 90-day pause on nearly all of his previously announced “reciprocal tariffs,” reducing the tariff rate to 10% for all countries except China, which is still subject to a 125% tariff. These developments add to the ongoing uncertainty, which Hougan believes will only enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against macroeconomic risks.

The Outlook: Bitcoin as the Fastest Horse in a Changing Market

Crypto trader and analyst Will Clemente echoed similar sentiments on X, stating, “Bitcoin will be the fastest horse” coming out of the current economic drawdown. Clemente pointed to Bitcoin’s liquidity and its status as a non-earnings asset, explaining that the uncertainty surrounding global trade and deglobalization are actually positive factors for Bitcoin.

Despite Bitcoin’s recent correction of around 32% from its January 2025 all-time high, which aligns with typical pullbacks in previous bull market cycles, the crypto market remains bullish on its long-term prospects. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has surged by 7.5%, reaching $81,700. The resilience of Bitcoin in the face of these macroeconomic challenges is a testament to its growing role as a store of value in turbulent times.

As global trade tensions continue to shape the economic landscape, Bitwise’s unwavering confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025 highlights the firm’s belief in Bitcoin’s fundamental value. With the US dollar weakening and geopolitical uncertainty mounting, Bitcoin’s decentralized nature positions it as a viable alternative to traditional fiat currencies. Whether as a hedge against inflation or a potential global settlement asset, Bitcoin’s future looks increasingly bright in the face of ongoing financial volatility.