Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi has revisited his “power law” model for predicting Bitcoin’s price, which forecasts an individual BTC reaching $10 million by 2045.
A power law is a mathematical relationship where one value is proportional to a fixed power of another value. It has been observed across various natural phenomena, from earthquake frequencies to stock market dynamics.
Initially shared on the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018, Santostasi’s model gained renewed attention in January 2024 after being featured in a video by finance YouTuber Andrei Jeikh.
According to Santostasi, the model predicts Bitcoin could peak at $210,000 in January 2026 before dropping to $60,000 thereafter. He argues that the power law offers a clearer and more predictable view of long-term Bitcoin price action compared to traditional linear charts.
Santostasi emphasizes that the power law model, unlike the stock-to-flow model, is logarithmic rather than exponential. This allows for fluctuations in Bitcoin’s price, as observed between 2020 and 2023, to be accommodated within the model.
Mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger provided additional mathematical modeling of the power law, predicting a $100,000 Bitcoin price within the next two years. He suggests that Bitcoin’s market cap could surpass that of gold by 2033, reaching $1 million per coin.
Despite proponents’ confidence in the power law model, critics caution that any mathematical model may contain errors and fail to anticipate random events that could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price.
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