In the midst of the mix of optimism and doubt surrounding the potential approval of the first spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, well-known Bitcoin critic and advocate for gold, Peter Schiff, has issued a warning to BTC enthusiasts.
On X (formerly Twitter), Schiff expressed concern that spot Bitcoin ETFs could potentially have a catastrophic impact on the price of BTC. He noted that the promise of a U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETF has been a pillar supporting the Bitcoin price and speculative demand for years. According to Schiff, the approval of such an ETF could lead to a collapse in the price of BTC if the expected institutional demand does not materialize.
Schiff, a persistent Bitcoin skeptic who has inaccurately predicted the demise of Bitcoin in the past, received responses from BTC proponents. They pointed out that, similar to a gold ETF not affecting the demand for physical gold, a spot Bitcoin ETF would likely only contribute positively to the BTC market.
Despite the anticipation among Bitcoin enthusiasts, Matrixpoint, a data-centric consultancy firm, suggested that the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the U.S. may face delays. Contrary to other analysts who predicted a 90% chance of approval before the Jan. 10 deadline, Matrixpoint forecasted that the SEC is likely to reject all spot BTC ETF applications. The firm highlighted a critical requirement that it believes the applications fail to meet and does not foresee the first spot Bitcoin ETF being approved before Q2 2024.
Matrixpoint’s analysis considered the dominance of Democrats among the current leadership of the SEC’s five-person voting commissioners. The firm suggested that it is less probable for any of the commissioners, including SEC chief Gary Gensler, to vote in favor of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Amid conflicting reports and predictions, the SEC’s Jan. 10 deadline for a decision on the spot Bitcoin ETF approaches, leading to a shift in market sentiment from optimism to skepticism. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, who initially saw a 99% chance of approval in the first quarter of 2024, now believes there is a slim chance that the SEC might reject the applications, describing it as a potential “rug pull of a decade.”
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