Speculation about the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has intensified on social media, reaching a crescendo amid tweets from Grayscale’s legal chief mentioning form filling and a widely shared post by a TechCrunch reporter suggesting multiple ETFs could be approved soon.
Despite the fervor on social media, some analysts anticipate potential approvals in the coming week. TechCrunch reporter Jacquelyn Melinek, citing sources close to the matter, hinted at the approval of multiple ETFs and expressed expectations for an announcement the next day in a January 4 post on X (formerly Twitter).
The cryptic tweet from Grayscale’s chief legal officer, claiming to be “just filling out some forms,” has added to the buzz, with the hashtag #BTCETF and “Bitcoin ETFs” trending on Twitter. The price of Bitcoin has also seen a 3.4% increase in the last 24 hours, rebounding from a sharp drawdown on January 3.
However, not all analysts are convinced of an imminent approval. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart dismissed much of the speculation around a January 5 approval as noise, expecting the SEC to approve between January 8 and 10. Attorney Joe Carlasare highlighted that the public comment period for several ETF applications extends until midnight on January 5, making it “very unlikely” for approval before the next week.
Eric Balchunas, a senior Bloomberg ETF analyst, clarified that the SEC is in the process of providing final comments, and issuers will file their final 19b-4 and S-1 forms soon after. Both forms need approval before an ETF can start trading, and an approved 19b-4 form is crucial for the spot Bitcoin ETF’s effective approval.
Despite the social media buzz, Scott Johnsson, the general partner at VB Capital, expressed skepticism about an ETF approval before the following week, emphasizing the need for clear 19b-4 applications and potential SEC considerations for simultaneous approvals.
Fourteen issuers, including BlackRock, Valkyrie, ARK Invest/21 Shares, Bitwise, and Fidelity, are competing for approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
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