Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the possibility of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being rejected by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in January is slim. According to Balchunas, if rejection occurs, it is more likely due to the SEC wanting “more time” rather than a straightforward denial. He, along with fellow ETF analyst James Seyffart, maintains a 90% chance of approval by January 10, but they haven’t raised the odds beyond that due to the lingering concern.
Balchunas emphasized that he doesn’t anticipate an outright denial, and the 10% chance encompasses various scenarios. Given the substantial time and effort invested by both the SEC and Bitcoin ETF issuers, he believes a last-minute outright rejection is improbable, stating, “Everybody put in a lot of work in this, especially over the holidays. Sadistic might not even be strong enough a word for it.”
Crypto research firm K33 Research’s analyst Vetle Lunde shares a similar perspective, placing the chances of an ETF rejection at just 5% in a recent market report.
If the SEC were to issue a flat-out denial, Balchunas speculates that fund issuers might take legal action against the regulator, following the example set by crypto asset manager Grayscale. He remarked, “People have spent too much money and tried too hard to give up now. So yeah, it would not be over. I don’t even think there’d be a cooling-off period this time. I think there’d be hell.”
Despite ongoing public comments submitted to the SEC’s request for feedback on the ETF filings, including recent requests for outright rejection, the general sentiment remains optimistic about the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF.
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