Altseason May Be Delayed Until 2025: Key Factors and Predictions

The anticipated altcoin rally, often referred to as “altseason,” might be postponed until 2025, contingent upon Bitcoin and Ether reclaiming crucial price levels. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, outlined in an August 12 research note that significant altcoin gains will likely follow only after Bitcoin and Ether surpass key psychological thresholds.

Hayes stated:

“Alt szn will return only after Bitcoin and Ether decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively […] The combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree.”

Current Market Dynamics and Bitcoin’s Trajectory

Bitcoin and Ether are currently recovering from a substantial $510 billion sell-off that brought their prices down to February lows. Bitcoin, in particular, dropped below a critical post-halving growth trendline when it fell below $63,000. According to Hayes, regaining this trendline before the end of 2024 is crucial for Bitcoin to potentially reach the $100,000 mark, a target aligned with historical post-halving cycles.

Hayes predicts:

“Therefore, taking Bad Gurl Yellen’s word, we know that $301 billion of T-bills will be net issued between now and year-end. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly retrace the dump caused by the yen strengthening. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000.”

Despite these optimistic projections, Bitcoin is currently struggling to surpass the $60,000 mark, and ETF inflows have stagnated. On August 12, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated $27.8 million worth of BTC, compared to $89 million worth of inflows on August 9, according to Farside Investors data.

Solana’s Potential in the Next Altcoin Season

Regarding altcoins, Hayes speculates that Solana (SOL), currently the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, could see its price rise to $250 during the next altseason. However, Hayes notes that the impact of a Solana price surge would not be as pronounced as that of Bitcoin or Ether due to Solana’s relatively smaller market cap.

Currently, Solana’s price is about 42% below its all-time high of $259, which was reached in November 2021. Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s rise above $70,000 could also drive more investment into Solana, potentially boosting its price.

While the altcoin sector shows promise, the timing of an altseason rally appears tied to Bitcoin and Ether reclaiming significant price levels. Until then, the market may experience fluctuations and delays in broader altcoin gains.