Asset management firm VanEck has made several bold predictions for the cryptocurrency sector in 2024, including a new all-time high for Bitcoin, influenced by a looming U.S. recession and changes in the regulatory landscape following the U.S. presidential election.
On December 8, VanEck shared 15 crypto forecasts for 2024, encompassing price projections, the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the impact of the Bitcoin halving, and the rise of dominant crypto platforms. VanEck, along with other major firms like BlackRock and Fidelity, is competing to launch the first approved spot Bitcoin ETF and a spot Ethereum ETF. The firm anticipates the approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 but also foresees a downturn in the U.S. economy.
VanEck predicts that the U.S. recession will coincide with the launch of these ETFs, potentially leading to over $2.4 billion flowing into them in the first quarter of 2024, which could support Bitcoin’s price. The firm expects the Bitcoin halving in April or May to cause minimal market disruption, followed by a post-halving price increase.
A significant prediction is that Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the fourth quarter of 2024, possibly driven by political and regulatory changes after the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024. However, VanEck does not foresee Ethereum surpassing Bitcoin in 2024, though it expects Ethereum to outperform major tech stocks.
VanEck also notes that while Ethereum remains the industry standard for smart contracts, its market share may be challenged by other platforms like Solana, which have clearer scalability roadmaps. Despite this, Ethereum’s layer-2 networks are expected to dominate in terms of total value locked and trading volume following the EIP-4844 scaling update.
In contrast, venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) focused more on artificial intelligence and decentralization in their “Big Ideas in Tech for 2024” report, released on December 6. A16z believes that crypto could democratize AI, currently dominated by tech giants, by enabling decentralized networks to offer permissionless markets for computing power and data contributions.
VanEck also predicts shifts in the centralized exchange landscape, with Binance potentially losing its top spot due to regulatory pressures and competition from exchanges like Coinbase, OKX, Bybit, and Bitget. The firm anticipates a rise in stablecoin market capitalization to $200 billion, a resurgence of Circle’s USD Coin, new highs in decentralized exchange spot trading volumes, and a predominance of KYC-compliant decentralized finance platforms over non-KYC ones.
Get $200 Free Bitcoins every hour! No Deposit No Credit Card required. Sign Up