The trajectory of Bitcoin’s price during its current cycle remains a topic of debate among traders and analysts, with various models and theories offering contrasting views.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has proposed an “exponential decay” pattern, suggesting that each successive bull market cycle peaks at around 20% of the previous cycle’s peak gain. Based on this model, Brandt estimated a cycle top of $70,000, which Bitcoin already reached in March.
Giovanni Santostasi, CEO and director of research at Quantonomy, challenges Brandt’s theory with his own based on long-term power law behavior. He highlights the limited data available and presents an alternative exponential decay pattern predicting a peak of around $210,000 by December 2025.
Other analysts offer their predictions, with Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal anticipating Bitcoin’s price to at least double by the next halving in 2028, estimating around $120,000. Laurent Benayoun, CEO of Acheron Trading, suggests a potential cycle top of $180,000.
Fidelity Digital Assets revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin, indicating that it is “no longer cheap,” reflecting changing market dynamics.
At present, Bitcoin is trading at $62,528, down 15% from its all-time high in mid-March, according to CoinGecko.
With diverse models and predictions, the trajectory of Bitcoin’s price during its current cycle remains uncertain, reflecting the complexity of market dynamics and the multitude of factors influencing cryptocurrency valuations.
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