Bloomberg analysts have increased the likelihood of an approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the end of 2023, after a recent win by Grayscale against the federal securities regulator.
On August 30, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas shared on X (formerly Twitter) that they have raised the probability from 65% to 75% due to the unanimous and decisive decision made by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit in the recent case.
“The judges unanimously rejected the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will have a hard time justifying further denials as it faces deadlines,” Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein noted in a separate August 30 note. In his own post on X, Seyffart added that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the odds of approval to have now surged to 95% by then. Balchunas added that given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC would be “politically untenable.”
Over the next five days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” decision by the SEC — those submitted by Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.
Balchunas said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications. However, he believes the most likely scenario is that the SEC will unexpectedly approve all the Bitcoin spot ETFs at once.
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