Bloomberg analysts have raised the chances of an approved spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023, following a recent victory by Grayscale against the federal securities regulator.
On August 30, Eric Balchunas, a senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, announced on X (formerly Twitter) that they increased the probability from 65% to 75% due to the unanimous and decisive decision by the United States Court of Appeals Circuit in the recent case.
“The judges unanimously repudiated the SEC’s arguments, and the agency will struggle to justify further denials as it faces deadlines,” noted Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Elliot Stein in a separate August 30 note. Seyffart added on X that spot Bitcoin ETF approvals will likely be a “done deal” by Q4 2024, estimating the approval odds to have now skyrocketed to 95% by then. Balchunas added that, given the recent legal and public relations loss, a denial by the SEC would be “politically untenable.”
Over the next five days, seven Bitcoin spot ETF applications are due for a “first deadline” decision by the SEC — those by Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.
Balchunas said he “wouldn’t be surprised” if the SEC delays these upcoming Bitcoin spot ETF applications. However, the most likely outcome will be that we unexpectedly wake up to the SEC giving in and approving the Bitcoin spot ETFs in one hit, he said.
Ramaswamy, a presidential candidate, added that if elected, he would rescind all federal regulations that fail the Supreme Court’s major questions test from last year’s West Virginia vs. EPA case. This move would limit the SEC’s oversight of the industry, assuming crypto regulations were deemed a “major question.” However, it is currently being tested in U.S. courts whether this doctrine applies to the crypto industry. While several amicus briefs supported Coinbase with the same argument, a recent court hearing in the Terraform Labs case ruled that the doctrine doesn’t apply to crypto tokens as their economic implications aren’t significant enough.
Ramaswamy is one of three remaining presidential candidates showing outward support for the crypto industry, along with Robert Kennedy Jr. and Ron DeSantis.
Elon Musk, the Tesla CEO and multibillionaire, recently praised Ramaswamy for his acceptance of Bitcoin and pro-crypto advocacy, adding that he is a “very promising candidate.“
In late May, the presidential candidate started accepting Bitcoin for campaign donations.
Grayscale Investments’ recent triumph over the SEC on August 29 has been hailed as a significant victory for the cryptocurrency sector, particularly for Bitcoin ETFs.
BTC’s price surged by 7.3% to $27,940 before moderating to $27,200 at the time of writing, as per CoinGecko, while several Bloomberg analysts highlighted that Grayscale’s victory enhances the chances of spot Bitcoin ETFs receiving approval by the end of 2023.
Get $200 Free Bitcoins every hour! No Deposit No Credit Card required. Sign Up