A decentralized predictions market built on the Polygon network saw over $12 million wagered on whether the United States would approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) before mid-January.
These bets took place on Polymarket, a predictions market platform, where participants staked a total of $12.6 million, betting either “YES” or “NO” on the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs before January 15.
The betting began in early December 2023 and concluded on January 10 when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved the trading and listing of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, some individuals who had bet “NO” expressed dissatisfaction, arguing in the comments section that the wager was still valid because the SEC’s official statement referred to exchange-traded products (ETPs), not specifically ETFs.
Polymarket had previously mentioned that “the primary source for resolving this market will be information from the SEC, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be considered.”
The activity on prediction markets, such as Polymarket, increased significantly leading up to the eagerly anticipated SEC decision.
According to data from Dune Analytics, Polymarket recorded more trading volume than OpenSea on January 10, with $5.7 million compared to $3.9 million on the nonfungible token marketplace. The prediction market also features a similar ongoing bet regarding the approval of a spot Ether ETF by May 31.
As of now, only $4,155 has been wagered on the outcome of the Ether ETF, with “YES” votes leading by 75%. Polymarket humorously remarked, “you simply aren’t bullish enough” regarding this bet.
Prediction markets offer a platform for betting on a wide range of events, including election results, sports outcomes, and cryptocurrency prices. For instance, more than $5 million has already been wagered on the possibility of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election in November.
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