Crypto gamblers are placing bets on whether spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will receive approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before May 31.
According to the Polygon-based crypto gambling site Polymarket, traders have engaged in placing bets on the approval of a spot Ether ETF application before the end of May.
Over $2.4 million worth of bets have been placed, with approximately 81% expressing pessimism about the likelihood of spot Ether ETF approval before the deadline.
Crypto traders purchase “Yes” or “No” shares based on their predictions, with the share’s value reflecting the odds of the bet and fluctuating similarly to the crypto market.
At present, the cost of a Yes share stands at $0.19, while a No share is valued at $0.81, indicating a lack of confidence among gamblers in the approval of spot ETH ETFs by the end of May.
The top trader holding Yes shares possesses approximately $84,000 worth of shares, whereas the leading holder of No shares holds around $127,000 in No shares.
Should the SEC approve a spot Ether ETF before the betting market’s deadline on May 31, 2024, at 11:59 pm Eastern Time, the market will resolve, enabling holders of Yes shares to cash out their earnings. Conversely, if no approvals occur before the deadline, the opposite applies.
This isn’t the first instance of crypto traders betting on ETF approval results. Previously, on Jan. 5, Polymarket saw bets on the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC before Jan. 15, drawing criticisms from Reddit users.
Some Reddit users labeled the betting as imprudent, akin to risking dollars to win dimes, while others humorously contemplated wagering their kid’s college fund.
Despite the skepticism reflected in the betting market, investment management company Grayscale remains optimistic about a positive decision by the SEC for spot Ether ETFs by May. Grayscale’s chief legal officer, Craig Salm, expressed that the SEC’s perceived “lack of engagement” with applicants doesn’t necessarily indicate the outcome of ETF approval.
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