Over $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin futures options are scheduled to expire on April 12, suggesting potential downside volatility that could see Bitcoin drop to around $69,000.
With a put-to-call ratio of 0.62, the options market indicates a “max pain” point of $69,000 for Bitcoin, where most options contracts would expire worthless.
Hao Yang, global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, explains that while the max pain point reflects options market sentiment, it doesn’t dictate Bitcoin’s actual trading level.
Despite the impending options expiry, Yang doesn’t anticipate significant volatility, considering the options market’s relatively small size compared to the total crypto derivative market.
Bitcoin’s price remained stable around $70,725 leading up to the expiry, with a 5.9% increase on the weekly chart. Potential downside volatility could be influenced by macroeconomic factors such as inflation concerns.
Andrey Stoychev, head of Prime Brokerage at Nexo, suggests that Bitcoin may approach $69,000 due to broader market sentiment and concerns about inflation. Recent U.S. CPI data showing higher-than-expected inflation has impacted Bitcoin’s price dynamics.
In the United States, inflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have decreased ahead of the Bitcoin halving. Last week, ETFs saw $337 million worth of net inflows, down from their peak of $2.58 billion on March 11.
Despite the slowdown in inflows, Bitcoin ETFs still hold over 839,000 BTC worth $59.4 billion, representing 4.26% of the current BTC supply.
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