Despite Record-Breaking Event, Bitcoin Holds Above $69,000
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) remained steady above the $69,000 threshold on March 29, despite the market witnessing the largest quarterly Bitcoin futures options expiry event in history.
Hao Yang, the global head of derivatives trading at Bybit exchange, shared insights with Cointelegraph:
“We have experienced the largest option expiration in history for Bybit and Deribit as well. People may roll over or unwind their hedging position during the expiration time, and the action of unwinding may have a small impact on the price movement in the very short term.”
Over $15.1 billion worth of cryptocurrency futures options expired on Deribit on March 29 at 8:00 am UTC, according to a March 28 post by Deribit.
Of the $15.1 billion, $9.53 billion represented the notional value of Bitcoin options expiring at a put/call ratio of 0.84, with a “max pain” price potential of $51,000.
Despite Potential Volatility, Minimal Impact on Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook
While options expiry can lead to heightened volatility, Hao Yang explained that the “max pain” price point doesn’t offer an accurate reflection of Bitcoin’s long-term price potential, which is still tied to its fundamental values:
“Just as a fancy gaming PC case doesn’t directly impact the performance of the hardware inside, max pain is an indicator that provides some insight but ultimately has limited influence on the actual price movement of Bitcoin.”
Andrey Stoychev, project manager at Nexo’s prime brokerage division, noted that despite the expiry, the price impact was minimal:
“With the current scenario where calls are substantially in the money while puts are converging to zero, delta hedging has largely concluded, and we anticipate minimal price impact from the expiry. However, the pivotal question remains: will the call profits be reinvested into new contracts, and if so, what strikes and maturities will be favored?”
On the chart, Bitcoin price fell 0.7% in the 24 hours leading up to 10:35 am UTC to trade at $69,924, according to CoinMarketCap data. The world’s first cryptocurrency is up over 11.9% on the monthly chart.
Rekt Capital, in a March 26 video analysis, suggested that Bitcoin may have reached a turning point:
“Bitcoin is now peaking beyond this old all-time high, potentially positioning itself for this pre-halving retracement to be over.”
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