With the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April 20, Bitwise Asset Management highlights historical price action following previous halvings. Despite short-term declines immediately after the event, Bitcoin has historically seen substantial gains in the year that follows.
After the 2012 halving, Bitcoin surged by 8,839% in the subsequent year, and a similar pattern was observed after the 2016 halving, with a 285% increase leading to a peak at $20,000 in 2017. The 2020 halving also resulted in a 548% pump over the following year, indicating a consistent trend of underestimating the long-term impact of the halving.
Although the current market cycle marks the first time Bitcoin has reached an all-time high before its halving, industry executives express pessimism in the short term. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, predicts a potential $5-billion miner sell-off post-halving, exerting downward pressure on markets.
Marathon CEO Fred Thiel suggests that the halving rally has already been factored in, accelerating what would have been a post-halving rally. Additionally, trader and analyst Rekt Capital points out significant market corrections since the 2022 bear market bottom, with ongoing corrections indicating the possibility of further declines.
Analyst Cold Blooded Shiller highlights the common occurrence of 30% corrections in the market, suggesting that Bitcoin could potentially fall to around $51,000. This observation underscores the volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets and the potential for further adjustments following the recent correction of 16%.
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